| E-Briefings – Volume 22, No. 1, January 2025 |
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Healthcare Forecast 2025: 10 Trends for Board Members, Senior Leadership, and Physician Leaders →By Steven T. Valentine, President, Valentine Health Advisers, and Guy M. Masters, President, Masters Healthcare Consulting
Key Board Takeaways
With the election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States and the Republicans holding the majorities of Congress, change is inevitable. Hospitals, physicians, and health plans that offer Medicare Advantage were already facing headwinds forecast for 2025. For the past three years, health systems, hospitals, and physicians have struggled with issues including labor (travelers, registry, or temporary staff); salaries, wages (with some states and cities passing minimum wage requirements), and more expensive benefits; cybersecurity/ransomware attacks; escalating drug costs (especially specialty drugs, now exceeding 40 percent of dispensary revenue); supplies; and recently, inflation and interest rate increases (causing debt and operating costs to be more expensive). Many of these elements will persist in shaping the financial, operational, and clinical outcomes, along with change from a new administration, for 2025. 1. Workforce challenges and labor unrest will continue:
In the boardroom:
2. Cybersecurity/ransomware threats will persist, worsen, and demand greater attention:
In the boardroom:
3. Efforts to improve access and address social determinants of health (SDOH) will inch forward:1
In the boardroom:
4. Artificial intelligence, ChatGPT, machine learning, predictive analytics, and precision medicine will disrupt healthcare slowly:
In the boardroom:
5. Mergers, acquisitions, partnerships, and collaboratives will increase:
In the boardroom:
6. Site of care shifts will continue to impact providers in 2025 and beyond:
In the boardroom:
7. Payer mix will continue to deteriorate:
In the boardroom:
8. Hospital operation issues will persist:
In the boardroom:
9. Price transparency is failing (so far):
In the boardroom:
10. Consumerism is back:
In the boardroom:
Critical Success FactorsParting thoughts regarding critical success factors and other indicators for boards to watch:
As we have advised in prior years, set clear goals and high expectations, and hold people accountable for performance. Do not be complacent; what worked this year may not be sufficient for the next. Don’t be afraid to fail. TGI thanks Steven T. Valentine, M.P.A., President, Valentine Health Advisers, and Guy M. Masters, M.P.A., President, Masters Healthcare Consulting, and Governance Institute Advisor, for contributing this article. They provide strategic advisory services to health systems and hospitals for strategic planning, transactions, and governance performance improvement. They can be reached at stv189.sv@gmail.com or (818) 512-0349 and guymasters11@gmail.com or (818) 416-2166 and www.mastershealthcareconsulting.com 1 Social determinants of health are also now being referred to as “vital conditions”; see e.g., https://health.gov/our-work/national-health-initiatives/equitable-long-term-recovery-and-resilience/framework. 2 Center for Healthcare Quality & Payment Reform, “Rural Hospitals at Risk of Closing,” November 2024. 3 Susanna Vogel, “Hospital Price Transparency Continues to Drop: Report,” Healthcare Dive, November 22, 2024. Friend or Foe? Private Equity as a Strategic Partner to Hospitals and Health Systems →By Hector Torres, Managing Director, Aaron Newman, Director, and Luke Hartline, Associate, Healthcare Investment Banking, DC Advisory
Key Board TakeawaysThe following elements can help boards consider the viability of a PE partnership:
Private equity (PE) plays a significant role in the financing of healthcare in the U.S. In 2022 alone, approximately 863 healthcare-related transactions were completed by PE firms, after reaching a historical peak of 1,013 healthcare transactions in 2021.1 PE firms have long been consolidators of the hospital, nursing home, and home health sectors, but recently, this investment activity has even extended to physician practice management sub-specialties, such as urology, orthopedics, cardiology, and beyond. PE investment activity, while scrutinized from a regulatory standpoint, has remained consistent within the hospital and health system sector, with approximately 460 acute care facilities presently under PE ownership.2 A handful of PE firms dominate the list of private equity-owned hospitals: Apollo Global Management (LifePoint Health, ScionHealth), Equity Group Investments (Ardent Health Services), One Equity Partners (Ernest Health), GoldenTree Asset Management and Davidson Kempner (Quorum Health), Surgery Partners (Bain Capital), and Webster Equity Partners (Oceans Healthcare).3 PE is a broad term that represents private investment activity taking the form of either investments made directly in a target company or secondary transactions made by acquiring shares from existing investors. Both primary and secondary PE investments are made through a fund of committed capital that is structured as a limited partnership. PE funds involve a general partner, which raises and administers the fund, selects investment opportunities, and distributes return proceeds back to investors when investments are sold. The investors in the private equity fund are the limited partners. The standard PE fund organizational structure is outlined below. PE General Partner/Limited Partner Fund Structure
Multiple factors are driving PE’s growing attraction to the healthcare sector. One was certainly the historically low-interest rate environment witnessed in the last few years.4 A second factor has been the increasing commercialization of healthcare, which has made it more acceptable for private investors to treat healthcare—traditionally a non-profit sector—similarly to other sectors of the domestic economy. While PE has already invested nearly $1 trillion into the U.S. healthcare market since 2006, the most recent evolution of the PE playbook includes non-traditional partnerships with hospitals and health systems,5 due to sector-specific challenges faced by acute care operators. For example, PE can uniquely serve the role of “rescue capital” for organizations in need of funds to stabilize day-to-day operations and invest in the technology platforms and care quality improvement initiatives necessary to remain viable. PE can also be a solution to enable the attainment of operating cost reduction, while simultaneously increasing both access and quality of care. PE can provide acute care operators access to financial and operational acumen, which leads to more efficient healthcare delivery.6 Additionally, access to the financial, technological, and operational expertise necessary to enable a thriving value-based care strategy also represents a key area of potential collaboration with PE. For organizations not seeking an outright sale to PE, clinical service line joint ventures represent an alternative opportunity. These models include PE partnerships within specific clinical service lines in which acute care operators can partner with PE to fully leverage the institutional knowledge, financial resources, and related capabilities of a PE-backed portfolio company, while still maintaining significant service line governance, ownership, and control. These joint venture models can empower hospitals and health systems by enabling them to reap the benefits of partnership with PE-backed organizations that solely focus on a particular service line, thus resulting in increased access to higher quality, lower cost care for the patients they serve throughout the community. This model can provide the hospital and health system with a “best of both worlds” scenario in which their patients benefit from enhanced access to care across a particular clinical service line that may or may not be a core area of organizational growth and/or expertise for the acute care operator. These strategic service line joint ventures may also serve to increase access to care in rural communities not presently served by the acute care hospital or health system, thereby also growing the total addressable patient population for the acute care operator longer term. TGI thanks Hector Torres, Managing Director, Aaron Newman, Director, and Luke Hartline, Associate, in the Healthcare Investment Banking practice of DC Advisory, for contributing this article. They can be reached at hector.torres@dcadvisory.com, aaron.newman@dcadvisory.com, and luke.hartline@dcadvisory.com. 1 PitchBook Data, Inc., 2022. 2 Private Equity Stakeholder Project, Private Equity Hospital Tracker. 3 Ibid. 4 David Blumenthal, “Private Equity’s Role in Healthcare,” The Commonwealth Fund, November 17, 2023. 5 Ibid. 6 Lukas Recio and Matthew Marconcini, “The Rise of Hospital and Health System JVs with Private Equity,” VMG Health, October 19, 2023. Bringing Light and Heat to Healthcare Governance: Co-Creating
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Key Board Takeaways
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Healthcare governance holds immense responsibility and influence in one of the world’s most complex sectors. Boards and healthcare leaders navigate myriad internal and external forces to strengthen systems of care, paying attention to social, economic, political, geographic, and environmental forces that shape opportunities for health, safety, and well-being in the United States. This prestigious obligation demands weaving foresight, insight, and oversight, amidst a continually shifting landscape, to create robust, integrated healthcare ecosystems that heal, protect, and preserve health across the life course.
Boards play key roles, not only as stewards of the present, but as architects of the future. This involves championing and resourcing long-term strategic investments for radical transformations and moving beyond merely improving outcomes within our current flawed systems. Effective boards recognize the vital importance of relationships in changing systems and help build organizational muscle to foster interconnectedness and radical reciprocity.
The U.S. healthcare system remains one of the least user-centric, despite the highest spending globally. Ranked last among peer nations, its outcomes reflect intentional design rather than dysfunction.1 Medicine and healthcare have been organized and incentivized to deliver highly unequal and inequitable care. Our two-tiered payment system paradoxically reimburses the least for patients with comorbidities, who have the most socially complex needs and structural vulnerabilities. 2 Across the U.S., employees at small businesses generally face higher health insurance deductibles and premium costs than employees at large firms within the same city or state.3 Nearly one in four U.S. adults have health coverage all year but are underinsured, facing high out-of-pocket costs and deductibles that force many to skip needed care or take on medical debt.4 Chronic disinvestment in our nation’s public health infrastructure undermines comprehensive and coordinated health promotion and disease prevention efforts. These unjust and preventable system forces jeopardize institutional missions, deny our community members fair and just opportunities for health and well-being, and hinder efforts to develop thriving healthcare workforces. We have been diagnosing for a very long time and already know many solutions to design a healthcare system that cares for every one of us.
Our healthcare story is still unfolding. Despite the grim reality, efforts across the U.S. are addressing root causes and reimagining structures, cultures, and practices where people have the agency and resources for accessible, affordable, culturally congruent, and respectful care. Multi-sector partnerships, grounded in community-defined priorities, have been addressing upstream and downstream elements.6 Shared vision, radical collaborations, and commitments to co-design are shaping organizational mindsets, underlying assumptions and beliefs, and flows of power, influence, and resources.7
As we kick off 2025, boards and executive leaders have a critical charge: to reflect, rethink, and act at patient, organizational, community, and societal levels. This moment of polarization and flux demands unwavering commitments to eliminate harm and ensure the safety and well-being of our patients and staff. Boards must actively embody the just world we envision, bringing together diverse stakeholders to co-create solutions that reflect our shared commitment for affordable and safe, timely, effective, efficient, equitable, patient-centered (STEEEP) care. Our story remains unwritten, and future generations depend on us to lead with courage and vision.
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“Remember to imagine and craft the worlds you cannot live without, just as you dismantle the ones you cannot live within.” ―Ruha Benjamin |
Efforts to improve healthcare often emphasize operational elements. Boards and leadership too frequently adopt a scarcity mindset when it comes to investing in the relational aspects of systems change. Visionary boards consistently embody organizational values, integrating business priorities with dedicated opportunities for strategic learning, shared meaning making, and collaborative endeavors with community members and key partners—internally and across the broader ecosystem. This requires earning and giving trust, practicing complexity, engaging in principled struggle, bridging relationships, and cultivating solidarity with disparate beliefs and groups, recognizing that our whole is much more than the sum of our parts.
Visionary boards recognize leadership as active processes and practices of being and doing that we cultivate and embody every day. The remainder of this article highlights two catalyzing frameworks to enhance resilience and support leaderful ecosystems with foundational capacities to advance systems change (light) and commit core accountability (heat) to mission and community.8
In times of uncertainty, cultivating belonging is vital. Drawing from Dr. john powell’s decades of research, this framework from the Othering and Belonging Institute (OBI) at UC Berkeley, emphasizes actionable principles to practice bridging and belonging:9
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Boards play key roles, not only as stewards of the present, but as architects of the future. |
Transformative change requires significant shifts in what we do, how we do it, and who we are while we are doing it. This visionary framework from Change Elemental underscores the importance of moving beyond isolated actions or narrow strategies to embrace deeply interdependent practices for a more equitable, interconnected, and resilient world.10 The real power of this framework lies in the interplay of the elements:
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Advancing deep equity: Beyond diversity, this element dismantles structural barriers and guides deeper engagement into the positive impacts of our identities to foster dignity, love, and justice to transform systems; it cultivates shared understanding that equity is not a zero-sum game that benefits one group at the expense of other. Practices reaffirm a commitment to often-overlooked issues and build intentional collaborative processes for transforming people, institutions, and systems. |
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Embedding multiple ways of knowing: Incorporating diverse epistemologies—such as lived experience, art, and ancestral wisdom—alongside rational analysis enriches healthcare. Practices include reinforcing and amplifying cultural translation, so we normalize that institutional knowledge and community knowledge hold the same value; considering language justice, which goes beyond translation services, and values opportunities for people of all cultural backgrounds to have agency and meaningfully participate; utilizing the power of art to deepen ethical inquiry into clinical practices, to document our histories, tell truths, and ground us in our shared humanity; and expanding our heuristics and mental shortcuts for decision making that dissociate us from community and local contexts. By valuing all forms of knowledge, healthcare leaders transform false narratives into new narratives that redefine what’s possible and inspire bold, systemic change. |
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Cultivating leaderful ecosystems: Leadership has a highly interconnected, mutually supportive ecosystem orientation. Leaderful ecosystems develop capacities for movement organizing and in aligning values and actions across groups of people or communities on complex, multi-issue efforts. It involves engaging our broader system and networks of leaders for the long haul. Practices emphasize solidarity and collective care. Effective leaders nurture collaborative environments and prioritize trust-building and shared goals for meaningful change to thrive. |
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Influencing complex systems change: A systems approach requires stepping back to see the whole system as well as the interrelated parts. It involves understanding and mapping out the interconnected web of historic conditions and current emerging patterns that connect the structures, cultures, institutions, and individuals influencing the system. Transformation involves evolving practices that embrace experimentation and emergence, and rethink systems boundaries to address intersecting factors and achieve the scale and depth of transformative change needed. |
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Centering inner work: Inner work affirms dignity and prioritizes individual and collective health, vitality, clarity, and wholeness. Embedding rituals, prioritizing balance and rest, and repairing relationships are essential for sustaining systemic transformation. This foundational element pays attention to regenerative practices and strengthens the connection between personal growth and organizational progress, by increasing synergy, alignment, and collective strategic action. |
This framework challenges leaders to align personal and systemic transformation for a just and thriving future. It combines the board’s responsibility for setting strategic direction towards a future vision with the quality, equity, community building and systems change work boards must weave into a focused leadership construct.
How can we hold complexity and change and ensure mission impact remains a constant focus across boards, executive teams, and all organizational levels? Our nation possesses the resources, expertise, and people to create cultures of health where every person has fair opportunities to attain their full health potential, and every community has and provides the vital conditions and culturally affirming supports for well-being and thriving. Boards have the unique opportunity to reexamine systems, invest in foundational infrastructures, and cultivate just and leaderful healthcare ecosystems.
By embracing frameworks that challenge systems and value people and planet, boards can adopt community-centered approaches, supporting staff and community members to be equal partners in designing impactful solutions. This approach requires humility, creativity, and unwavering dedication to justice. As stewards of our institutions, networks, and the broader field, we honor and build on the achievement of those who came before us and create for future generations, striving to be both good descendants and good ancestors. What story will your healthcare ecosystem tell?
TGI thanks Kinkini Banerjee, Founder and Principal of Sage Transformations, Past President of the Board of Trustees, Alameda Health System, and Director of the Board, BabyFriendly USA, for contributing this article. She can be reached at kinkini.banerjee@gmail.com.
1 David Blumenthal, et al., Mirror, Mirror 2024: A Portrait of the Failing U.S. Health System: Comparing Performance in 10 Nations, The Commonwealth Fund, September 19, 2024.
2 Kimberly Singletary and Marshall Chin, “What Should Antiracist Payment Reform Look Like?,” AMA Journal of Ethics, January 2023.
3 Kristen Kolb, et al., Trends in Employer Health Insurance Costs, 2014–2023: Coverage Is More Expensive for Workers in Small Businesses, The Commonwealth Fund, December 10, 2024.
4 Sara R. Collins and Avni Gupta, The State of Health Insurance Coverage in the U.S.: Findings from the Commonwealth Fund 2024 Biennial Health Insurance Survey, The Commonwealth Fund, November 21, 2024.
5 Katherine Gottlieb, “The Nuka System of Care: Improving Health Through Ownership and Relationships,” International Journal of Circumpolar Health, August 5, 2013
6 For example, see Greensboro Health Disparities Collaborative (GHDC).
7 Anne Morris Reid, et al., Improving Maternal and Infant Health Through Multisector, Community-Driven Partnerships, The Commonwealth Fund, December 2024.
8 Rishi Manchanda, et al., Bringing Light & Heat: An Equity Guide for Healthcare Transformation and Accountability, July 2021.
9 OBI offers free virtual learning opportunities, a vast repertory of resources, and recently published two books, Belonging without Othering: How We Save Ourselves and the World and The Power of Bridging: How to Build a World Where We All Belong. To learn more and join the global movement, visit https://belonging.berkeley.edu/bridging-belonging.
10 To learn more about Change Elemental’s framework, see https://changeelemental.org.